San JoaquinCounty is on the verge of moving back to restrictive COVID-19 quarantines, based on the latest numbers on new cases from the California Department of Public Health.
As of Wednesday the county was reporting seven new cases for every 100,000 residents, the maximum allowed under the red “substantial” tier in Gov. Gavin Newsom’s Blueprint for a Safer Economy. The county has started off in the most restrictive purple “widespread” tier when Newsom announced the plan on Aug. 28, and the county reached the less-restrictive red tier the week of Sept. 29.
The county reached 4.9 cases per 100,000 two weeks ago, but cases have increased since then to 6 per-100,000 last week and 7 per-100,000 this week.
If San JoaquinCounty continues to see more new cases when numbers are reported again on Nov. 10, the county would have a week to get that rate back to seven per-100,000 or less. Otherwise the county would move back to the more restrictive purple tier.
The difference in tiers applies to how businesses can open. Under the purple tier many venues, such as worship centers, gyms and restaurants, are required to stay closed for indoor business, but they can open for limited indoor capacity under the red tier.
StanislausCounty is already facing moving back to the most restrictive purple tier after reporting 7.6 new cases per-100,000 residents. The Stanislaus County Health Services Agency reported that the county risks moving back to the purple tier for at least three weeks. The county would have to meet the case rate for the red tier, less than 7 per-100,000, for at least two weeks in order to move back to the less restrictive tier.
The number of new cases in San Joaquin County peaked over the summer, and after a steady decline those numbers started to rise again last month. New cases in San JoaquinCounty peaked on Aug. 8 at 535. The seven-day average dipped below 40 the second week of October, the lowest it had been since early June, but was back up to about 70 by the end of October.
The rate of hospitalizations of COVID-19 patients in San JoaquinCounty remained steady over the past month. After peaking at 262 on July 27 the number of hospitalizations was reduced to less than 40 per-day as of the start of October, and was down to 23 people in San JoaquinCounty’s hospitals on Oct. 18 and 19.
Deaths in San JoaquinCounty have declined as well after they peaked 23 on July 28 and peaked again at 21 on Aug. 31. The seven-day average has been at less than one death per-day for the past two weeks, with 10 deaths over 18 days between Oct. 17 and Nov. 3. In that time there have been 13 days with no deaths.
Statewide the reports of new daily cases had seen a reduction after peaking on July 21 (12,807) and Aug. 14 (12,614). Reports of new cases leveled off at a seven-day average of under 4,000 new cases per-day for nearly all of September and October before they started to rise again at the end of October. The seven-day average of new daily cases has been above 4,000 since the final week of October.
After a steady decline through August and September, hospitalizations around the state started to see an increase in the past week. Confirmed and suspect COVID-19 patients in hospitals around the state peaked on July 21 at 8,820 and decreased to just over 3,000 at the start of October, where hospitalizations leveled off for most of the month, dipping to a low of 2,969 on Oct. 24. By the end of October those cases had begun to climb again, reaching 3,410 hospitalizations on Tuesday.
Daily deaths from COVID-19 continue to decline, having peaked on July 31 at 219. The seven-day average has been about 40 deaths per-day since the last week of October, which is the lowest it has been since the start of April.
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