David Kerst recently described my previous letter, as “total and complete hogwash.” He quoted me accurately and in context, which is a unique experience, but it’s still unclear what he was referring to.

My words were actually a description of a Washington Post article titled, “The Migrant Surge at the Southern Border is Actually a Predictable Pattern.” The analysis was based on decades of Border Patrol data. So, what’s “complete hogwash”; the Border Patrol data, the Washington Post analysis, or my account of it? The only thing that is clear is that Kerst’s intemperate conclusion is a bit severe.

The observation, based on actual government data, that, “the numbers usually go down over the summer,” was also made in a Bloomberg article by Justin Fox titled, “It’s Back to the 1990s Along the Southern Border.” The article illustrates its analysis with numerous graphs of government data. It’s an example of empirical, data-based analysis, something with which Dave and his four-member tag team are probably unfamiliar.

The analysis cited above completely undermines the unsophisticated argument of Dave’s uninformed brethren that the rush of migrants to the border is due to a single factor; it’s Joe Biden’s fault. The analysis of data shows that what we are experiencing at the border is a repeated pattern of spikes including 1986, 2000, 2006 and 2019. Blaming it on a current president may be a useful partisan hobby, but it’s not good social science.

David goes on to complain about thousands of COVID-infected immigrants being released by Biden. I am one of several outside writers invited to publish guest editorials in the Stockton Record. In today’s editorial (9/5/2021) I debunk the story above. Fact-checking agencies have deemed Dave’s story “false,” “mostly false,” and it’s been awarded “three Pinocchio’s” by a third.

Michael McGuire, Tracy

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